HomeOptionFlowOptionFlow-reportsQQQ – SPY – 12-4-15

If anything, today taught us how important it is to determine your levels in advance and to always trade accordingly. If it wasn’t for that my FB calls would have turned into a huge loss. Instead I stopped out pretty quickly for just a small loss, when it couldn’t hold on to the bullish PRZ mentioned in previous post.

The SPY on the other hand, due to the observed levels as per previous posts, gave us huge opportunities today. The “entry” level for a possible CD leg down on the 60min chart was at 208.76. yesterday’s close was at 208.54 And todayThe 9:50 5min bar closed decisively below these levels. While the 30min chart already showed us how the bearish PRZ’s top level and 127%XA level were rejected on 12/2. and subsequently triggered an entry for a leg down at 210.06.

During the day there were two more opportunities for a short trade:

On twitter pointed out a small AB=CD pattern with PRZ starting at 208.4. It reversed 2 pennies below that at 208.38, this resulted in a AB=CD leg down.

Then around 13:45 pointed out that it had reached the D of this pattern: so it either reverses at-, or falls below the – PRZ and continues in same trend. Another quick drop proofed the latter to be true in this case. 206 Puts from that point on gained a 100%.

5min chart

 

SPY-12-4-15-5min

note how over $500k in puts were added at the 13:30 doji candle, on 2nd small bounce of the PRZ.

30min chart

SPY-12-4-15-30min

From 14:45 on, SPY traded between the 224 and 261.8%XA 30min chart levels, in a XABCD pattern shown on the 5min chart. And came within 3 pennies of the AB=CD PRZ.

The last bar on the 5min chart shows $2.25million in Puts. This actually includes the 16 to 16:15 time. I saw some large lots being traded after 16:00 at or above the ask. I can not be to certain whether these were really buys, or not. After 16:00 the bid-ask is all over the place, and gets manipulated quite a bit. And most of these trades were 209 strike. So these could be just profit taking.

One Interesting trade was almost a million$ in QQQ 112.5 and 113 calls 12/4 expiration at 14:52. Some of these seem to have been a call spread.

So for tomorrow I’ll be watching the XABCD on the 5min chart. So it’ll either break above PRZ and follow the XA levels, or reverse again. We’ll see where it trades before market open in the morning.

some optionflow:

12-3-15-OF

SPY-12-4-15-OFstrike

due to the limited amount of strikes the @gr8estbot can handle (7 OTM, and 4 ITM, as per yesterday’s close), on days like today, where we see a large range, unfortunately I don’t have any data on the strikes below the 205.5 strike.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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